Sunday, August 10, 2014

謝金河,,, 史上罕見的無量崩盤!!

蘋中信:基亞意外戳破兆元生技夢(謝金河)20140809    上月27日是生技展最後一天,全市場都關注著一個焦點:基亞早期肝癌術後防止復發新藥PI88的期中分析報告「解盲」,若數據達到標準,將會進行期末分析報告,最快年底將直接申請藥證。工研院生醫所估計PI88全球上市後,全球市場商機達620億台幣,股本13.87億的基亞若能獨吃這個大餅,那股價還了得?而在此之前,市場透過媒體耳語傳播,歐美有數家大藥廠考慮以100億美元併下基亞。這些好消息簇擁而來,讓基亞在期中報告揭露之前一刻,股價最高漲到479元,總市值達664億元,不但超過宏碁,也超過華航。 一顆PI88把基亞的夢幻拉升到最高點。此時所有新藥股也跟著一飛沖天,像浩鼎憧憬全球乳癌市場有60億美元的大商機,股價漲到402元,市值達598;因宇昌案暴紅的中裕因靜派注射型劑有望在美上市,股價漲到198元,市值跑到428億;而智擎則因為與MERRIMACK合作發展能延長晚期胰臟癌病患整體存活期的新藥,預計有7500萬美元的里程金入帳,股價衝到355元,市值也達356億元。

高額股價瞬間崩解 基亞、智擎、中裕、浩鼎的飆升,讓台灣有4家新藥公司股價一度超過400元,有3家超過300元;市值超過300億的新藥股有6家,而這一段時間,台灣的生技產業也展開快速搶錢風潮,在短短2年之內,台灣有26家生技股上市,58家上櫃及42家生技股上興櫃,總共有126家企業在資本市場淘金。以前的兆元產業只有在半導體、面板等產業出現,但是這2年,在官方與民間共同努力之下,加上台灣的資本市場創造的神奇魔力,台灣上市與上櫃生技股,合力將總市值推升上9千億,若再加上上興櫃的生技股,正式完成兆元產業的拼圖,一顆新藥的夢幻,帶來的財富效應比印鈔票還快。就在市場期待基亞期中報告再下一城之際,27日深夜基亞公布期中分析未達預期療效,市場高度期待,瞬間落空,基亞的股價彷若從山上滾下來的石頭,短短2周,居然暴跌10個停板,基亞的股價也從479元慘跌到213.5元,股價跌掉265.5元,市值縮水310億,這是史上罕見的無量崩盤景況。這個由PI88端出來的新藥饗宴,讓過去1年來買進基亞的股民沉醉在新藥快速回報的夢境中,現在發現劇場失火了,卻逃生無門,因為每天都有12萬籌碼掛出卻賣不掉。基亞暴跌拖累母公司云辰,也讓過去股價奔馳的浩鼎、中裕、太景、安成、智擎、台微體、美時、晟德紛紛加入跌停行列。就像三國時代火燒連環船一般,這可能是台灣生技投資熱以來規模最大一次調整,短短2周,台灣上市、上櫃生技股市值已吹掉千億。但隨著基亞的暴跌,股民逃生無門,才掀開這原是一場市場惡性炒作戲碼,背後有十分具爭議的大股東,也有股市作手,也有煽風點火的媒體,助興的生醫機構,加上供輸資金的兩種金主。基亞意外戳破台灣生技股炒作的夢幻,也讓這瞬間吹出來的兆之產業根基動搖。 財金文化董事長 《蘋中信》作者群  謝金河、何飛鵬、張鐵志、殷乃平、劉克襄、呂秋遠、米果、胡晴舫、馬維敏、吳惠林、王尚智、劉靜怡

迅捷(聯電?) 投資疫苗(基亞疫苗) 非肝癌藥PI88 (基亞生技) !!!

基亞疫苗 獲聯電集團入股【經濟日報╱記者黃文奇、簡永祥/台北報導】

2014.08.08 05:29 am基亞生技董事長張世忠昨(7)日宣布,聯電集團旗下創投公司迅捷入股基亞集團旗下子公司基亞疫苗,投資金額1.2億元,以每股30元取得基亞疫苗400萬股、約8%股權,成為大股東之一。張世忠昨日接受本報專訪,雖公司近日因股價無量下跌飽受批評,但他言談中仍透露自信,並宣布聯電集團旗下迅捷入股基亞子公司基亞疫苗;面對近日股價無量下跌,他強調,股價下跌不影響公司財務,請外界不要擔心。張世忠指出,昨日董事會決議引進策略性投資人迅捷,經雙方達成共識,由迅捷董事長洪炳坤拍板。他透露,雙方此一交易協議多時,迅捷此次入股基亞疫苗,確實受到聯電高層「認可」,並授權以「集團名義入股」方式發出新聞,就是看好公司在生產技術能力、產品線及未來潛力,並認為這次合作將開啟聯電集團跨入生技領域的重要里程碑。不過,聯電財務長劉啟東昨日表示,聯電持有迅捷股權不到50%,沒有控制權,此次訊捷投資基亞子公司基亞疫苗400萬股,占資本額8%,金額1.2億元,是迅捷本身的投資規劃,與聯電無關。基亞昨日股價吞下第九根跌停板,收229.5元,委賣張數仍超過1萬張,成交量僅24,今日在此利多加持下,能否打開僵局,值得注意。不過,基亞大股東云辰昨日有逾1.5萬張神秘買盤湧入,企圖打開云辰跌停狀態,但未竟全功。對於後續合作,張世忠指出,由於雙方對生技產業布局及策略發展看法相近,除了這項投資案,未來不排除在股權投資或生技專案投資有更進一步的深化結盟。至於迅捷為何看好基亞疫苗,張世忠表示,公司目前除了PI-88OBP-301項肝癌新藥在臨床試驗並致力於全人源單株抗體開發外旗下業務還包含分子檢測試劑細胞培養疫苗及學名藥其中疫苗領域則有新型流感H7N9H5N1及新型腸病毒71型與日本腦炎疫苗等,都已進入臨床階段。近年來由純研發領域擴大到生產規劃,張世忠說,細胞培養疫苗廠預計明年上半年於竹北生醫園區落成,開始進行認證,位於廈門的檢驗試劑廠預計今年底啟用;今年完成併購的學名藥大廠溫士頓也正進行新廠PIC/s GMP製造規範認證。

聯電人看好競爭力 雪中送炭 基亞生技昨(7)日公告聯電集團旗下投資公司迅捷入股子公司基亞疫苗。在基亞遭逢新藥期中分析失敗的敏感時機,股價無量下跌,迅捷卻在此刻「雪中送炭」,讓人好奇,頻問「為什麼?」業界分析,基亞疫苗競爭力應是關鍵。據悉,聯電集團旗下迅捷董事長洪炳坤,是「老聯電人」,還曾任職京元電,是投資界老將。基亞與迅捷在此案斡旋已久,談判時間超過一年以上,日前因基亞新藥進入期中分析的緊鑼密鼓階段而擱置,近期基亞遭逢困厄,洪炳坤特別重啟談判,並對基亞說「在這個時間點,不妨來完成之前的交易,以表達我們對公司的力挺」,雙方一拍即合。業界指出,迅捷此刻入股基亞,不僅可能有較好的談判條件,還能因此給基亞一個天大人情,基亞在產業面布局還算完整,未來雙方若深化合作,算是雙贏交易。【2014/08/08 經濟日報】

創新醫材(MedTech) 進市場將面臨比藥 更唯(微)利化 (market access complexity) !!

 

MedTech Market Access Hurdles are a Global Problem By Amit Kukreja and Matias Gonzalez  Posted in Medical Device Business by MDDI Staff on March 25, 2014 Medtech companies are developing more breakthrough technologies, but getting those innovations to market around the world remains a challenge. We are living in times in which opportunities for innovation in medical technology and the subsequent improvement in healthcare provision have multiplied. Advances such as the artificial retina (or bionic eye), bone-cell generation, and 3-D printed exoskeletons once thought possible only in science fiction have become reality. Today, innovative medical technologies can cure, diagnose, treat, or provide rehabilitation for previously unmet needs. The medtech industry is mainly driven by SME research and development, and ongoing revolutions in key areas, such as neurostimulation, bionics, nanotechnologies, or 3-D printing, are exponentially increasing opportunities for the next generation of devices.3–5 But despite medtech's significant potential for improving the quality and efficiency of healthcare, barriers in the access to advanced technologies have also been growing in recent years and this may negatively impact the incentives for research and development in the industry. Even though the commercial climate in some of the biggest medtech markets still looks positive, signs of deterioration have become evident in most of the traditional commercial hotspots in recent years.3,5 Complex reimbursement and procurement pathways, budgetary constraints, and increased price control mechanisms are all taking a toll. Other factors impacting market access for breakthrough medtech products include the following:

v         A weaker venture capital climate due to the financial crisis.

v         New low-cost competitors.

v         Inadequate patent protection in many emerging markets.

v         The changing regulatory landscape.

v         A lack of transparency in many ongoing healthcare reforms.

v         Hospital practices' slow progress in adapting innovative technologies (e.g., in the UK).

v         Lengthy assessment processes (e.g., in the outpatient sector in Germany).

v         Increased development costs.

v         Health technology assessment methodologies that are still not fully developed for the sector.

v         More stringent evidence requirements. 1–9

The reimbursement approval process in European countries is often considered more complex than that in the United States due to its increasing focus on evidence-based reimbursement decisions and cost-containment policies. Consequently, reimbursement access has become the focus of many device makers' attention in a number of global markets. After obtaining the CE mark in Europe, manufacturers face fragmentation in reimbursement scenarios across as well as within countries—for example, subdivided by regions in Wales and Northern Ireland within the UK or by 21 regions in Italy, with a large difference in cost structures in the northern and southern parts of the country. Furthermore, key factors affecting technology access, such as variation in hospital purchase functions, and commissioners and patient organizations, have only emerged in recent times. This creates a multiple stakeholders and multiple entry points to the marketplace. Strong analytics and value propositions should be elaborated to meet different stakeholder's needs. Additionally, cost containment pressures in such markets leads many caregiver institutions to focus on procurement as an area where they can cut operating costs. In some cases, management and procurement among institutions (such as primary care trusts in the UK in the past) can be fragmented and uncoordinated, for example, for high value capital equipment. 6,8 As observed by Eucomed, some of these factors may have little or nothing to do with how well or how safely a device performs its intended task.2 In the case of breakthrough technologies such as the bionic eye and others, some additional obstacles should be considered throughout the market access process. These challenges include educating and training the medical community on new treatment procedures and therapies, creating awareness programs for patients, and building the necessary infrastructure to conduct the procedure. There are economic barriers such as temporary, short-term approval conditions, and companies must also clear hurdles such as achieving final adoption by hospitals and eventual incorporation into diagnosis-related groups' (DRG) coding systems. These challenges build numerous uncertainties in the process and restrain a product's growth potential. Highly innovative devices must demonstrate strong long-term clinical evidence, which leads to a longer regulatory process. More critically, market access for these novel devices depends on the fundamental roadblock of a lack of preexisting reimbursement mechanisms (i.e., codes, coverage, and payment rates). For instance, in many of the western reimbursement systems, a device must first be in widespread use among physicians before the company can apply for the creation of a new reimbursement code, creating the risk of a circular problem.6 The disproportionate balance in market access conditions between incremental innovations and breakthrough technologies is all too evident. In recent years, policy makers in some countries have begun to address these barriers in access to innovative medical technology. In Germany, the annual new diagnostic and therapeutic methods (NUB) program offers a unique platform for market access to innovative medical technologies. As product use and clinical confidence in the new therapy grows, it eventually gets fully integrated into a DRG. Based on product development stage, France offers multiple platforms to introduce innovative technologies into its healthcare system, including PMRE, STIC, and Article 165-1-1. In Italy, each region can decide to reimburse or not reimburse a new technology, which can serve as a platform to open doors for new innovations in Europe. Similar early-stage, temporary funding and policies can also be found in other countries outside Europe, such as CMS's temporary DRG in the United States. In the case of emerging economies, a recent report commissioned by the Dutch government for the WHO on overall barriers to medical technologies innovation arrived at similar conclusions regarding barriers in developed markets and innovation incentives, while addressing the conditions that are specific to emerging economies.9 First, the broader category of developing countries represents a new market opportunity for the medical device industry, with a strong degree of reliance on imports, opportunities for lower production costs, and in terms of their total population (4.9B), generating and aggregating gross domestic product comparable to that of developed nations. According to the report, common barriers to innovation shared by both developed and developing countries include limited staff training, resistance on the part of the established medical practice, and reluctance to admit the need for a skills upgrade. For example, among the studied cases of radical innovations in the field of ophthalmology, the slower adoption of intraocular lenses and phakoemulsification by the UK as compared with other jurisdictions was due both to resistances in adopting and acquiring necessary skills, and to methods of resource allocation reflected on managers' fear that potential demand could not be met.7,9 However, there are barriers to innovation that are unique to the developing world, including costs, lack of spare parts and consumables supply chains, expertise training, infrastructure, and lack of universal health insurance system. Concerning emerging economies (such as those in Brazil, Russia, India, and China), systems operate under different and complex dynamics, with some similarities to a developed market environment—especially from a private-pay perspective. Even if such economies are commonly grouped as "emerging," each of these markets is at a different stage of maturity— from regulatory process, public-private insurance system, or a Health Technology Assessment (HTA) development. Considering the local healthcare environment combined with cultural and business complexity, there is no single approach with which such markets can be approached. Some of these hurdles affecting market access for technology-led innovations are comparable to the challenges faced in Europe. For example, the emerging role of HTA in South Korea, Taiwan, China, Mexico, and Brazil is another indicator of how these markets are developing their public healthcare coverage policies along the lines of some of the European markets. In sum, an increasing number of breakthrough medical technologies are being developed to fulfill unmet clinical needs or to achieve improved patient outcomes. It is therefore imperative to achieve a broader recognition of the need for improving market access conditions for valuable and life-saving medical technology innovations. Greater transparency in reimbursement and funding decision-making processes is urgently needed, while the need for a fresh, innovative approach toward evaluating breakthrough medical devices cannot be emphasized enough. Even though globally many policy efforts are moving forward on these issues, most countries have yet to figure out the overall balance of their healthcare investments, reimbursement decision process, patient care programs, optimal incentives for research and development, and the ultimate impact of such policies on the medical innovation ecosystem at large.

References

1. Drummond M et al, "Economic evaluation for devices and drugs -same or different?" Value in Health: V12, 4, 402-6, 2009.

2. Eucomed, "A MedTech map for bypassing market-access roadblocks", 2012, accessed on 10-08-2013 http://www.eucomed.org/blog/102/77/blog/2012/01/07/A-MedTech-map-for-byp....

3. Eucomed, "Medtech industry must change its way of doing business to remain successful in the EU", 2012, accessed on 13-08-2013, http://www.eucomed.org/blog/95/159/blog/2011/09/06/Medtech-industry-must....

4. European medical device technology, "Breakthroughs of 2013 (So far)", accessed on 12-08-2013, http://www.emdt.co.uk/article/medtech-breakthroughs-2013-so-far.

5. Simon-Kucher & Partners, "Med-tech Barometer survey", 2011, accessed on 12-08-2013, http://www2.simon-kucher.com/files/MedTech_Barometer_2011_Short_Summary_....

6. Mediclever Outsourced Medical Reimbursement, "A shortcut to medical device reimbursement in the UK", 2012.

7. Metcalfe et al, "Emerging innovation systems and the delivery of clinical services: The case of intraocular lenses", Research Policy 34: 1283 – 1304, 2005.

8. SCRIP insights, "Pricing and Reimbursement Strategies for Medical Devices", 2012.

9. The WHO, "Barriers to innovation in the field of medical devices," 2010.

Amit Kukreja, MBA, B.Engg, is director of market access and reimbursement at Second Sight.

Matias Gonzalez, Msc, MA, PhD, is assistant researcher at the Centre for Research in Health and Social Care Management (CERGAS) at Bocconi University.

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