GlaxoSmithKline chief questions rivals' chasing M&A deals May 11, 2015 6:14 pm Andrew Ward, Pharmaceuticals Correspondent GlaxoSmithKline's chief executive has warned that cheap money has increased the risk of companies making "poor choices" in mergers and acquisitions and questioned the "stretched" valuations of recent pharmaceuticals deals. Sir Andrew Witty said ultra-low interest rates inevitably reduced M&A discipline and he cautioned investors that not all the medicines being snapped up in multibillion-dollar deals would pay off. GSK has remained on the sidelines of the pharma M&A boom in recent months as other drugmakers have paid big premiums for growth assets."Some of these valuations look stretched," he told the Financial Times in an interview. "We're not going to get drawn into the idea that just because money is cheap we can do anything." More than $460bn of deals have been struck across the pharma and biotech sectors since the start of last year — the busiest period of M&A on record. An $8.4bn takeover of Synageva Biopharma by Alexion, a rival US rare disease drugmaker, last week, involved a premium of 124 per cent on the target's share price a week earlier. This was the fourth highest premium on record for deals over $5bn, according to Dealogic. Without singling out specific deals, Sir Andrew said: "When interest rates are essentially zero it is inevitable that you are going to see a discipline reduction in M&A . . . and therefore the probability of people making poor choices must have gone up." He said the mood reminded him of the last biotech boom around the turn of the millennium when investors were enthused by a wave of scientific breakthroughs — only to see many of them fall flat. "It is a little bit reminiscent of the early 2000s where every bit of new scientific news was good and would be permanent and would lead to great value-creation." Other industry leaders have argued the latest boom is sustainable because it is underpinned by more mature science. But Sir Andrew said not all new drugs would obtain the high prices needed to justify current valuations."Either only a few will make it and you get really good rewards, or lots will make it, in which case competition is going to bring the price down. In either scenario the model that says everybody succeeds and everyone gets maximum returns doesn't work." Andrew Witty, chief executive officer of GlaxoSmithKline Plc, speaks at the 13th Nikkei Global Management Forum in Tokyo, Japan, on Tuesday, Oct. 25, 2011. The 2 day forum is organized by Nikkei Inc., IMD and Japan Center for Economic Research. The one big deal GSK has done in the past year involved a $20bn asset swap with Novartis in which the UK group traded its cancer drugs for vaccines and consumer products. This has reduced GSK's dependence on pharmaceuticals in line with Sir Andrew's belief that developed world drug pricing is set to come under sustained pressure."Believing that the pharmaceuticals industry can carry on relying on pricing power and believing, no matter how high the price, no matter how small the patient base, that it is going to be paid for; it is quite hard to see how that carries forward." Sir Andrew is known for his cautious approach to M&A and some critics believe this explains why GSK has been left so badly exposed to the decline in its best-selling Advair asthma drug in the past year. "He should have bought something in the US to fill that gap," says a senior healthcare banker. But Sir Andrew said the "artificial high" from M&A was often not worth the cost and disruption. "We've made enormous progress replacing sales lost to generics. It means the top line hasn't moved much but we've done it without a big deal. Everybody else has . . . done a big deal. The approach we've taken is more cautious but I think it's the right one."
投資攻略：併購推動 生科醫療股看好[2015-05-22] 藥物專利到期，為大藥廠積極併購中小型藥廠提供機遇，藉此拓展產品版圖。去年下半年以來，全球生科醫療產業出現十大併購案，交易金額超過2,500億美元（約1.93萬億港元），保德信投信分析，生科醫療業界彼此之間競爭減少，有助提升盈利，而透過溢價併購，也能刺激股價上漲動力，有利相關基金表現。保德信全球醫療生化基金經理人江宜虔分析，根據美國個人消費支出（PCE）報告，消費者花費在醫藥產品上的支出增長率，持續領先整體消費支出，在低通脹環境下，多數產業只能「凍漲」，反觀製藥業界，掌握了較強的訂價能力。 傳統五六月 醫療股贏標普 回顧過去美國標準普爾500指數（S&P 500）股價，從過去各月的股價表現來追蹤短期表現，醫療生化產業表現可能超過S&P500指數幾率較高的月份為5、6月，其次為11月。江宜虔說，美股財報季踏入尾聲， S&P 500指數最新公布的474家企業中，有67%盈利優於市場預期，細究各產業，醫療保健業居冠，有83%優於市場預期；若看預測盈利年增率，醫療保健產業達18.3%，同樣是各產業中最出色的。逾十場國際醫學年會利氛圍 除了併購題材，江宜虔指出，展望本季，逾十場國際醫學年會輪番登場，值得關注的是下周舉行的美國腫瘤學會年會，由於去年全球癌症藥品銷售額已達1,000億美元，預測今年到2018年癌症藥品支出年增長率將為6%到8%，若會議中，出現正面的臨床實驗結果，往往有助拉抬許多醫療保健公司的股價預期。 江宜虔提醒，生物科技業具爆發力，但股價波動度高；投資人應該擴大目光，兼顧收益穩定、不受景氣循環影響的製藥業；受惠人口老化，長線看好醫療器材業以及具有高盈利率、現金充足的醫療服務業，透過平衡配置，才有機會在多頭時參與生物科技增長，空頭時運用製藥業防禦。
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