Wednesday, July 18, 2012

康聯近期佈局中國市場分析


康聯2012年醫藥代理的突破將有望使營收成長呈現漸入佳境的表現2012/07/1800:00(LeadingEdge提供)F-康聯控股公司(簡稱F-康聯)營運主體是上海國創醫藥有限公司(簡稱上海國創),公司銷售之B型肝炎藥物「代丁」,在2005年上市後到2010年為止,年複合成長率高達54%,迅速成為整體中國肝藥市場市佔率第三名之肝炎藥物。2012年醫藥代理的突破將有望使營收成長呈現漸入佳境的表現。今年29,康聯與英國葛蘭素史克(GSK)藥廠簽訂合作協議取得「力百汀」的中國獨家銷售權,同日也取得浙江仙琚過敏性鼻炎用藥「糠酸莫米松」的經銷權。3月份更取得B型肝炎用藥拉米夫定「銀丁」的銷售權,預估在三個新力兵加入下,下半年可開始貢獻營收,全年營收可望成長2成左右。由於今年第一季新代理藥品尚未開始貢獻營收,2012第一季營收較去年同期下降7.37%,為台幣3.84億元,營業毛利由去年同期56.11%提高至59.9%,但推銷費用增加2成,營業淨利為1.03億元,稅後淨利1.5元。今年下半年預估新產品加入後,預估營業淨利可達3.85億元,稅後每股淨利為5.4元。投資亮點預估2012年末,肝藥「銀丁」(拉米夫定)在便可開始貢獻營收,由於代丁和銀丁分別為肝炎不同階段治療用藥,二者搭配使用可以達到降低抗藥性的作用。因此我們認為,在銀丁順利加入F-康聯的代理用藥後,除本身可貢獻的銷售外,預估還可順利的再提高及延長代丁的生命週期。子公司上海國創醫藥在620日宣佈以約略新台幣3億元的代價,收購黑龍江同澤醫藥51%股權,加速深耕東北地區,並一併購入心腦血管產品之銷售權。我們預估公司在各省的直營據點以外,未來若仿照與同澤醫藥的購併方式,將可有效迅速擴大營銷範圍。由於F-康聯積極調整產品組合,降低肝藥代丁銷貨過於集中的風險,在2011年產品營收比重,代丁由2010年佔比92%下降為82%,骨材銷售則由4%提高至14%。我們認為銷貨集中問題在2013年之後會更加改善。受到第一季財報不理想和上半年新產品出現空窗期的雙重衝擊下,F-康聯跌幅高過同類公司,自前波高點下跌幅度已超過5成,目前領先本益比未達12倍,股價淨值比不到2.3倍,投資價值已經浮現。我們對F-康聯長期營運仍舊保持樂觀,惟近期受到國際金融情勢不樂觀,熱錢風險意識大增和台股證所稅議題和成交量縮影響,我們對公司投資的目標價調整為87~95元,本益比約當16~18倍左右,依7/17收盤價62.4計算,潛在報酬率為39.4%~52.2%,建議投資人可伺機逢低進場。經營項目公司已上市產品涉及抗肝、炎神經系統、抗腫瘤、呼吸系統、脊柱內固定產品及抗生素等治療領域。2005F-康聯推出抗B肝藥物阿德福韋酯,是,對野生和耐藥變異的B型肝炎病毒都有很強的抗HBV活性。該藥品2005年到2010年複合成長率高達54%2010年度佔公司營收91.4%,為公司的主要產品。主要用於預防腎移植病人的排斥反應,以及預防心臟、肝臟移植可能出現的急性器官排斥症狀,順友的主要競爭者為羅氏藥廠的,由於順友推出時間晚於,在市佔率表現上尚無法超越對手。因為中國空氣物染嚴重、吸煙人口也居高不下,20062010年呼吸系統藥物年複合成長益高達34%之多。F-康聯去年與浙江仙琚製藥公司合作,推出塞托溴銨粉霧劑(彼多益),並在20113月上市。屬於抗生素一種,主要針對葡萄球菌、鏈球菌、肺炎雙球菌、腦膜炎球菌及其他細菌感染症做治療。適用於一般如常見的上下呼吸道感染,扁桃腺炎、鼻竇炎、支氣管肺炎等;生殖泌尿道感染如膀胱炎、尿道炎等;蜂窩組織炎、傷口感染等做治療使用。屬手掀式噴霧裝置,治療成人、青少年或幼兒季節性或長發性鼻炎。F-康聯的醫療器械產品主要為脊柱內固定產品,脊柱內固定技術為在脊柱退變、創傷及矯正等諸多疾病的治療。公司代理之產品主要為鈦合金、聚醚醚酮及不銹鋼材料,2010年度及2011年銷售金額佔公司總營收分別為3.49%14%。計畫中藥物估值分析同類公司比較(資料來源:各公司財報、公開觀測站公司資料,LeadingEdge分析)1:各公司2012年預估每股盈餘及每股淨值時以目前股本計算。註2:港幣換算台幣以匯率3.89計算營業數據及財務分析

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李鍾熙 目標台灣生技產值 5千億 !!


李鍾熙:兩岸對接,生技產值倍增可期2012/07/1815:54精實新聞2012-07-1815:54:22記者蕭燕翔報導生技展即將在26日熱鬧開鑼,18日舉行展前記者會,生物產業協會理事長李鍾熙(見左圖中)表示,今年展會特色在於國際搭橋及創業育成,除首度有日本、澳洲及香港代表團主動表達參加意願外,並將有2場的兩岸廠商對接活動。他認為,搭配台廠在品牌、經營及技術優勢及大陸廠商通路/市場的利基,台灣生技業產值倍增將指日可待。生技展今年進入第10屆,李鍾熙表示,10年前台灣生技業產值不過僅1,100億元,目前已逾倍增至2,400億元;以上市櫃生技廠的市值來說,3年前不過僅760億元,目前已突破2,800億元,算是金融海嘯後的異數。而今年生技展預估將有超過600家廠商參展,設立千個以上攤位,規模可望再創歷年新高。李鍾熙也說,今年生技月及生技展的幾大重點包括創業育成,首場展開的BioBusinessAsia將有來自美國、新加坡及日韓的代表參與,重點放在產業的創業育成,將研究室的技術推向市場。此外,今年生技展的國際化程度也將創下新高。李鍾熙透露,今年首見有日本、香港及澳洲的代表團主動表達參加意願,其中日本廠商代表還有武田、中日等ㄧ級藥廠,日方與台廠合作的興趣濃厚,除仰賴台廠的管理技術外,也希望藉台廠進入中國市場。最特別的是,今年生技展也首設兩岸生技專區,李鍾熙說,今年對岸總計有6個代表團與會,除展開3場兩岸研討會外,還會有2場兩岸廠商的對接活動。他認為,中國未來10年內將變成全球第2大的藥品市場,陸廠擁有通路及市場的利基,台廠則在品牌、技術及經營上有優勢,未來雙方要是能結合,台灣生技業的產值要再倍數成長至5千億,「應該很快」!李鍾熙也說,台灣生技發展的精髓不是只有藥跟醫材,其實根據先前中研院研究,台灣產業平均水準勝過國際的在於農業,未來農業生技的發展可期,衍生擴大在食品上的應用,都是台灣邁向國際的競爭力。

Digital revolution in antiquated health-care industry a major operation

BY PETER NOWAK, FINANCIAL POST JULY 5, 2012 1 Dr. Eric Topol, a self-professed "rebel" cardiologist, has become a polarizing figure in the medical profession. Some praise him for vocally trying to effect change while others vilify him as self-aggrandizing or out-of-touch with reality. Photograph by: Kevork Djansezian , Gettu Images The emergence of new technology has forced the entertainment business to adapt rapidly into a more consumer-friendly, digital-first operation. But could the same thing happen with the notoriously conservative and slow-moving health-care industry? Dr. Eric Topol, the renowned and self-professed "rebel" cardiologist, thinks the same principle — popular demand driving transformative change — will also bring about a revolution in how we manage our health. "Everything we do in medicine reflects the lack of appreciation of the individual," he says. "The medical community is incapable of effecting change in a reasonable time frame, so we really need to get the consumer base educated and activated." In his new book The Creative Destruction of Medicine, Dr. Topol details this coming digital revolution in health care. While it is perhaps the most important industry there is, it's also one of the last to adopt digital technologies to drive efficiencies.

 The current state of medicine is population-based and treatments are created based on how they might affect a large group, he says. Such a system guarantees the majority of drugs will be ineffectual for many because it doesn't take into account the numerous biological differentiations in individuals. Fortunately, four emergent technologies — portable wireless sensors, personal genome sequencing, better digital imaging tools and ubiquitous electronic records — are converging to upend this antiquation, Dr. Topol says. Genome sequencing, in particular, holds tremendous promise because it will give individuals a full read of their own DNA, complete with a list of potential health conditions and the chances of developing them. With such a roadmap, people will be able to demand treatments tailored to their specific needs, as well as avoid harmful behaviours. With the price of sequencing heading toward less than $1,000 and the quality of assessments improving, Dr. Topol expects to see more than a million tests logged by the end of this year. Prices will continue to drop and quality will continue to get better, which means sequencing could soon become commonplace. Genomics will also combine with technologies that are already prevalent, such as wireless sensors and apps that work with mobile devices. Withings and iHealth, for example, already have a blood-pressure monitoring cuff that connects to smartphones, while AliveCor is an electrocardiogram app for the iPhone. Many more are in the pipe. Doctors are also the biggest users of smartphones, beating out all other professions, according to the Canadian Medical Association As a result, one of the first things Dr. Topol asks his older patients is what kind of phone they have. If it's an older model, he gives them an unusual prescription: "I tell them, 'You need to get a new phone.'" Dr. Topol also takes his own medicine, so to speak. All of his records are electronic and available to patients — no impossible-to-read handwriting — and he hasn't used a stethoscope in two years, instead opting for a handheld ultrasound monitor that takes real-time electrocardiogram readings of patients. He also doesn't prescribe Holter devices, a complicated mess of wires that monitors heart activity, preferring instead the compact iRhythm wireless device that sticks on to the skin like a band-aid and is then returned through the mail. "It's the Netflix of heart-rate monitoring," he says. Despite his progressiveness — or perhaps because of it — Dr. Topol has become a polarizing figure in the medical profession. Some praise him for vocally trying to effect change while others vilify him as self-aggrandizing or out-of-touch with reality. In 2004, he criticized the U.S. Food and Drug Administration and pharmaceutical maker Merck for allowing the heart drug Vioxx to go ahead. Dr. Topol said regulators ignored warning signs during tests that the drug could lead to an elevated risk of stroke, a factor that would later lead to its withdrawal. His views on the digital medicine revolution are no less controversial, with many doctors saying there are good reasons for their industry's conservatism. "If somebody makes a banking error, it's nothing that can't be corrected with another push of a button," says Calgary physician Dr. John Fernandes. "In medicine, we have patients' lives and livelihoods at stake." anada in particular may be late in adopting digital technology such as electronic health records — which many other nations instituted years ago — but it's now leap-frogging others, Dr. Fernandes says. Alberta's Netcare EHR, for example, is "the single best electronic health record system on the planet." Doctors are also the biggest users of smartphones, beating out all other professions, according to the Canadian Medical Association. They're not afraid of technology — they just need to know it works perfectly before adopting it. "They're not going to go and do some far-out experimentation on their patient population unless that's the last option available," says Bill Pascal, the CMA's chief technology officer. "They're looking for a solution to a problem and they want it to be convenient." In that vein, the digital revolution — particularly genomics — probably won't properly take hold for another 10 years or so, he adds. "There's just not good product out there." For Dr. Topol, that's not fast enough, especially when lives are at stake. With the industry moving at its typical slow speed, the onus is falling on consumers to demand change by taking digital technologies into their own hands. "That's totally unacceptable when you have something so important," he says. "This mandate of do no harm also means do no good." 

中研院…台灣經”濟稍”嫌悲觀 !!!


管中閔:經濟情勢嚴峻【經濟日報╱記者林安妮、江睿智/台北報導】2012.07.1904:18am中研院大幅下修全年經濟成長率至1.94%,行政院政務委員管中閔昨(18)表示,他不意外,這反映「經濟情勢嚴峻」;經建會則表示,近期國內多數機構預測值是在2.5%上下,中研院預估「稍嫌悲觀」。管中閔指出,今年6月初台大國泰產學合作計畫團隊大幅下修今年經濟成長率至2.45%,並針對各種情況進行區域預測,經濟成長率最低就是1.89%。昨天中研院大幅下修,他不感意外,這反映了經濟情況很嚴峻。管中閔昨天邀集各部會研擬「經濟景氣因應方案」新增措施,他強調,政府刺激景氣政策工具本來就有限,因應國際景氣小組會議主要是針對中長期法規鬆綁,但因應景氣變化,政府因應措施也增加一些項目,例如促進投資、穩定金融。【2012/07/19經濟日報】

李鍾熙..台灣生技產業快飛了?!!


李鍾熙:生技業強攻中歐美【經濟日報╱記者黃文奇/台北報導】2012.07.1904:32am中華民國生物產業發展協會理事長李鍾熙昨(18)日表示,台灣生技產業已經在「快要起飛的階段」,過去政府將較多重心放在研發階段,現在應配合產業主流需求,將協助重心轉往大陸及歐美市場的拓銷及法規突破,將可在最短時間讓產值翻倍。2012台灣生技大展將於26日啟動,「亞太生技商機高峰論壇」(以下簡稱BBA)也將提前兩天登場,主辦單位生物產業發展協會昨日舉行展前記者會,今年生技大展參與廠商數共有600家,參展攤位數也達到1,000家,創下新高紀錄。李鍾熙說,截至去年底為止,台灣生技產值2,400億元,相較於2002年的1,100億元,成長超過1倍;至去年底上市櫃生技公司市值也有2,800億,與2008年比較,成長4倍。他指出,生技股市值近3年快速膨漲,主因過去10餘年多家指標公司的努力開始發酵,大陸崛起也讓生技發展機會擴大。李鍾熙強調,目前生技業已有許多營收及獲利相當好的公司,另外有一半公司仍在虧損,但其中包括太景、智擎、台微體及基亞等後市仍相當看好。這些公司的成功,都並非突然間有魔法,而是能量累積到一定程度,開始進入成長期。李鍾熙指出,「政府可以再出點力量」,協助台灣企業從本土走入大陸及國際市場,則生技產值很快就會翻倍。【2012/07/19經濟日報】@
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