美生技股漲過頭 恐吹泡泡 2015-03-26 01:11 工商時報 記者林國賓／綜合外電報導華爾街日報報導，隨著那斯達克大盤指數逼近2000年的歷史高點，投資人不免開始憂心是否已有泡沫的問題，市場分析師認為，那斯達克確已浮現泡沫的隱憂，但有泡沫風險的不是科技股，而是漲翻天的生技類股。報導指出，美國生技股近年來漲勢凶猛，那斯達克生技指數自2012年初以來總計飆漲約240％，漲幅相當於那斯達克前100大科技股指數(82％)的3倍。生技大廠股價過去一年來持續暴衝，吉利德(Gilead)與安進(Amgen)均大漲40％，市值分別來到1,520億與1,270億美元，百健(Biogen)勁揚47％，市值膨脹至1,080億美元，賽基(Celgene)更暴漲75％，市值逼近1,000億美元大關。BMO私人銀行投資長艾布林(Jack Ablin)表示：「現在若要說有哪一個類股讓我回想到當年科技股的瘋狂多頭走勢，那無疑是生技類股，這個類股確實漲過頭了。」據貝里尼投資顧問公司資料，生技類股占那斯達克大盤綜合指數的市值比重僅約13％，但過去一年來對大盤指數漲幅貢獻度多達27％；那斯達克生技類股過去半年大漲27.4％，光是今年來就漲了17％。Cheviot Value資產管理公司基金經理人波拉克(Darren Pollock)指出：「對我們而言，生技股股價已來到泡沫的價位，我們同時認為，投資人對生技股已套用太高的生技分子成功率。」依據過去一年的獲利，那斯達克生技類股目前本益比已達將近50倍，遠高於那斯達克大盤的27.5倍；若依據未來一年的獲利預測，生技類股本益比也有31.5倍，那斯達克大盤則為21倍。資產規模達1,700億美元的美國銳聯資產管理公司(Research Affiliates)創辦人暨董事長亞諾特(Rob Arnott)表示：「有些生技新創公司的投資潛力確實相當吸引人，問題是股價究竟是偏低還是偏高實在難以判斷，現在可以確定的是，大多數都漲過頭了。」
Biotech's Rally Fuels Bubble Fears By GREGORY ZUCKERMAN Updated March 25, 2015 11:40 a.m. ET As Valuations Skyrocket and Nasdaq Nears Record, Anxiety Builds Fears of a bubble in the biotech industry? WSJ's Greg Zuckerman discusses the dramatic rise in stock values in the sector. Nasdaq bubble fears are back. But this time around, the biggest dangers may not involve technology stocks. Instead, some investors are looking askance at biotechnology stocks, a sector that wasn't nearly as developed when the Nasdaq Composite Index set its record close in 2000 of 5048.62. The Nasdaq Biotech Index is up about 240% since the beginning of 2012. That dwarfs the 82% gain logged by the Nasdaq-100 tech index of the largest technology companies listed on the exchange operated by Nasdaq OMX Group Inc. Giant biotech firms have surged in value: Both Gilead Sciences Inc., valued at $152 billion, and Amgen Inc., at $127 billion, have risen 40% over the past year. Biogen, valued at $108 billion, has climbed 47%. Celgene Corp., valued at $99 billion, is up 75%. "If any part of the market reminds me of the go-go tech years, its biotech," said Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at BMO Private Bank. "It's an expensive sector." Companies developing biotech drugs—often upstarts that can be acquisition targets for larger pharmaceutical companies—comprise 13% of the Nasdaq Composite Index by market value but have accounted for 27% of the index's gain over the past year, according to Birinyi Associates Inc. Biotech firms generally seek to develop medicines using living cells rather than chemicals. Nasdaq biotech shares have advanced 27.4% over the past six months and roughly 17% so far this year, compared with gains of 7.3% for Nasdaq-100 Technology Sector Index shares over the past six months and 1.4% this year. Behind the surge are heady earnings growth, more approvals from the Food and Drug Administration and investor enthusiasm for a range of new biotech drugs and potential treatments. A Gilead Sciences laboratory in California. Shares of Gilead and some biotech peers have risen 40% or more in the past year. A Gilead Sciences laboratory in California. Shares of Gilead and some biotech peers have risen 40% or more in the past year. However, biotech stocks often are viewed as a gamble for investors: high-risk and high-reward propositions that can drop like a rock if a drug trial fails or funding runs out. Biotech shares have been hammered en masse several times, notably in 1990, 1993 and 2000. "To us, shares of biotech companies find themselves entering bubble territory," said Darren Pollock, portfolio manager at Cheviot Value Management. "We think investors are applying too high a success rate on biotech molecules." For all the sector's recent successes, some see recent excitement for biotech shares as the latest sign that low interest rates are encouraging investor to take excessive risks. If the economy slows, or rates start climbing, investors could turn more conservative and shy away from these companies, which often offer little in way of earnings. A burst of initial public offerings of biotech companies over the past few years raises other concerns that these companies and selling insiders may be cashing in on investor excitement at the expense of public shareholders. That is why some investors are becoming wary. "Some of these companies are attractive," says Rob Arnott, founder and chairman of Research Affiliates, a firm that has developed strategies for products with $170 billion in assets around the globe. "But identifying which are cheap and which are froth is awfully difficult; it's a safe bet a majority don't deserve their current multiples." Biotech shares in the Nasdaq now trade at almost 50 times their earnings over the past year, compared with a price/earnings ratio of 27.5 for the overall Nasdaq Composite. Nasdaq biotech shares trade at 31.5 times their expected earnings over the next 12 months, above the 21 ratio for the overall Nasdaq market, according to FactSet Inc. Just like Amazon.com Inc.,eBay Inc. and some other technology companies were growing companies with shares trading at sky-high valuations in 2000, some worry that today's highflying biotech shares also are strong companies trading at prices that are too high. Celgene currently trades at a p/e ratio of 51.1. Biogen, Amgen and Gilead are at 36.6, 24.8 and 13.8, respectively. To be sure, even those biotech valuations can't hold a candle to the sky-high technology multiples of the Nasdaq record in 2000, when the index traded at a p/e well above 100 by some measures. Biotech stocks focused on cancer therapies are notorious for their risks. One of the hottest such stocks over the past decade was Dendreon Corp., which sparked enthusiasm form a novel prostate-cancer drug, Provenge. The drug won approval from the FDA in April 2010 and was seen as the harbinger of a new era of treatments enabling the body's immune system to fight cancer. Dendreon shares topped $55 in 2010, putting the company's market value at about $7.5 billion. But last November, Dendreon declared bankruptcy, weighed down by heavy debt and weak sales of Provenge. Bullish biotech investors counter that typical signs of a bubble haven't become apparent. In 2000, for example, biotechnology shares were soaring even though some companies were years away from even having a drug in trial. Today's popular biotech shares are typically of companies that have drugs on the road toward approval. At the same time, pharmaceutical companies are sitting on cash they are expected to use to make acquisitions. Pricing for oncology and other key drugs continues to rise, despite criticism. And some experts say true breakthroughs on cancer and some other challenging diseases may be near. "You have to be somewhat optimistic to justify some of the valuations, but the excitement overall is justified," said Dr. Nathan Fischel, who runs Dafna Capital Management LLC, a $170 million hedge fund in Los Angeles focused on biotech and medical devices."There are bubbles in some parts of the market but as a doctor, I feel like a kid in a toy store," Dr. Fischel added. "There are so many exciting areas and there are good reasons investors are getting excited about biotechnology companies."
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